Yushchenko dissolves parliament, calls for reelection: What to do when the country you're living in falls apart

Above: A Ukrainian man waits to cross the street near my apartment in L'viv, Ukraine on October 6th, 2008. The yellow bus approaching, called a Mashrutka, are a popular means of transportation in a city that doesn't have the infrastructure to deal with the surge in vehicles per capita in the last decade. 

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved the legislature on Wednesday and has called for new parliamentary elections on December 7th. The Ukrainian stock market has fallen 30 percent  and the Ukrainian Hryvna has fallen 20 percent as the economy continues to falter. The decline of the hryvna has outpaced even the devalued American dollar, the exchange rising from approximately 4.80 UA to 5.80 UA to $1 USD in less than 2 weeks. 

In short, the economy here is doing worse than the US economy, the currency is devalued, the government destabilized and everyone is really, really ticked off. Ukrainian sentiment has generally been to fix things as fast as possible in a country trying to stave off the political influence of the Kremlin. Although this could mean an even poorer Ukraine, political catastrophes in a troubled government and an even unhappier populace, I'm excited that heated politics could make good pictures.  

In short, there's a huge power struggle going on between the president and prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. Both were strong allies just a year ago, and both worked together in 2002 to take control of the government and put a pro-western coalition(of their two parties) in power. That coalition fell apart last month, leaving Ukraine out to dry. Now both are trying to win the presidency, and with the election coming in 2010, Yushchenko is running out of time.

I leave for Kyiv(Ukrainian for "Kiev") early tomorrow morning to photograph a banquet for the university(I'm trying to learn "smile please" in Ukrainian and Russian). I have no idea what's going to happen before the vote in December, but things are likely to get heated with more political demonstrations and confrontations happening across the country. 

Yushchenko's party, Nasza Ukraina(Our Ukraine), will probably lose seats in the revote, and Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko is trying to force her from office. My students didn't know this was happening on Thursday, the day after the president's announcement, but I'm certain to get an earful of it Kyiv. 

Orange flags vs. White; Ukrainian politics explodes in downtown L'viv

I was walking downtown a week ago and saw this rally for Prime Minister Tymoshenko's party. If you read my previous post, then you already know about the breakup of the coalition and how the once cordial Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko have suddenly become bitter enemies. So have their supporters. I managed to work my way into the center of the crowd, just as the Yushchenko supporters(orange flags) were staging a major upset of the rally of the Prime Minister's party(white flags). Minutes after this video, I was standing next to someone carrying a white flag when a orange flaggie charged him and tore his flag down, tearing it to shreads. The cops formed a human wall at that point and the Yushchenko supporters took over the main square. 

 

So, am I going to get invaded by Russia or what?

You might have noticed Russia stomp all over Georgia about a month ago, refuse to leave and ignore a peace deal brokered by EU president Nicholas Sarkozy. Pretty standard for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Put-dawg. I enjoyed an article on the recent collapse of the pro-western Ukrainian coalition that called Ukraine a "powder keg" that could ignite a land-grab by Russia. What the hell does that mean?

A recap: In August, Russia invades Georgia to 'protect' two separatist regions, going deep into Georgia and overstaying their welcome. This makes Ukraine nervous. In the 2002 presidential election, two Ukrainian political parties brokered a peace deal to oppose the pro-Kremlin candidate and win the presidency. They were Viktor Yushchenko(currently president) and Yulia Tymoshenko(currently PM). They wanted to join NATO, move closer to the west and strengthen ties with the US. This infuriates Moscow, and mysteriously, someone poisons Yuschchenko. You do the math.

There are roughly 144 million ethnic Russians living in post-soviet bloc countries(like Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). They speak Russian, they look Russian, they breathe Kremlin and they'd be happy to have Russia back. There are about 10 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine, according to figures I've seen. However, everybody east and south of Kyiv, I'd say at least 25 million people, speaks Russian. From what I've heard, seen and read, these people don't like the west.

World War II was the war we fought against Nazi Germany to bring freedom back to the world, right? No no no, it was the Great War of Liberty against Fascism, remember, comrade? Seriously, that's what people call it. Russian propaganda is fierce here. Hence Put-dawgs claim that there were American citizens in Georgia who instigated the conflict with Russia and "were receiving direct orders" from their government to "benefit one of the presidential candidates." Sounds like something out of . . . 1940s propaganda.

This past week, the coalition between the Ukrainian president and the Prime Minister collapsed. After some terse comments by the PM today, it's probably for good. Western, pro-NATO Ukrainians whisper the PM has ties with Moscow. Eastern, pro-Russia Ukrainians think the president has ruined an already bad economy and favor Putin's strong-arm economics. I just edited an article about a bishop getting signatures from 7 million Eastern Ukrainians to oppose joining NATO.

The moral: this coalition collapse could send Ukraine's NATO-wayward government tumbling back to Moscow. If Ukraine does make and get it's NATO bid, it could be the match that lights the powder keg of civil war, and/or an invasion. No one seems nervous here, and I haven't seen anything to make me suspicious. Ukrainians are more interested in their own politics than Moscow's interests. Still, it's a lot more real than I thought.