So, am I going to get invaded by Russia or what?

You might have noticed Russia stomp all over Georgia about a month ago, refuse to leave and ignore a peace deal brokered by EU president Nicholas Sarkozy. Pretty standard for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Put-dawg. I enjoyed an article on the recent collapse of the pro-western Ukrainian coalition that called Ukraine a "powder keg" that could ignite a land-grab by Russia. What the hell does that mean?

A recap: In August, Russia invades Georgia to 'protect' two separatist regions, going deep into Georgia and overstaying their welcome. This makes Ukraine nervous. In the 2002 presidential election, two Ukrainian political parties brokered a peace deal to oppose the pro-Kremlin candidate and win the presidency. They were Viktor Yushchenko(currently president) and Yulia Tymoshenko(currently PM). They wanted to join NATO, move closer to the west and strengthen ties with the US. This infuriates Moscow, and mysteriously, someone poisons Yuschchenko. You do the math.

There are roughly 144 million ethnic Russians living in post-soviet bloc countries(like Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). They speak Russian, they look Russian, they breathe Kremlin and they'd be happy to have Russia back. There are about 10 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine, according to figures I've seen. However, everybody east and south of Kyiv, I'd say at least 25 million people, speaks Russian. From what I've heard, seen and read, these people don't like the west.

World War II was the war we fought against Nazi Germany to bring freedom back to the world, right? No no no, it was the Great War of Liberty against Fascism, remember, comrade? Seriously, that's what people call it. Russian propaganda is fierce here. Hence Put-dawgs claim that there were American citizens in Georgia who instigated the conflict with Russia and "were receiving direct orders" from their government to "benefit one of the presidential candidates." Sounds like something out of . . . 1940s propaganda.

This past week, the coalition between the Ukrainian president and the Prime Minister collapsed. After some terse comments by the PM today, it's probably for good. Western, pro-NATO Ukrainians whisper the PM has ties with Moscow. Eastern, pro-Russia Ukrainians think the president has ruined an already bad economy and favor Putin's strong-arm economics. I just edited an article about a bishop getting signatures from 7 million Eastern Ukrainians to oppose joining NATO.

The moral: this coalition collapse could send Ukraine's NATO-wayward government tumbling back to Moscow. If Ukraine does make and get it's NATO bid, it could be the match that lights the powder keg of civil war, and/or an invasion. No one seems nervous here, and I haven't seen anything to make me suspicious. Ukrainians are more interested in their own politics than Moscow's interests. Still, it's a lot more real than I thought.